Why hurricane Helene is rapidly intensifying and the most dangerous part of the storm

SYRACUSE, N.Y. — All eyes are on Hurricane Helene as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, forecasted to make landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida. Helene is also forecasted to rapidly intensify from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 3 within a 12-hour time period. Why is this weather system strengthening so quickly and what part of the storm is the most dangerous?

If we look at a hurricane from above, if it is moving in from the south like Helene is forecasted to, let’s cut it into 4 pieces like a pie. The front right quadrant is the strongest most dangerous part of a hurricane. This is where the strongest winds are, the greatest risk for tornadoes, the highest storm surge, and the worst flooding. This front right quadrant is forecasted to hit somewhere near Carbur, Florida, to the east of Panama City.

Let’s look at what feeds a hurricane to understand why Helene is strengthening so quickly. First, a hurricane needs warm sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees or higher. Next, there needs to be converging winds at the surface that force air upwards. This will pull the warm water vapor up from the ocean into the sky, which we need abundant moisture for a hurricane to form. Plus, upper-level winds need to be blowing in roughly the same direction, so this storm system isn’t shredded apart. These upper-level winds also determine the direction that the hurricane moves.

In the case of Helene, we have all of these ingredients which has led to its development but it’s the extremely warm sea surface temperatures this week that are ramping up its strength. As Helene moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it will be running over sea surface temperatures of around 85 degrees, which is extremely warm!

For the latest forecast details about Helene’s path and strength, watch our broadcasts on CBS5 and NBC3. You can also visit our Weather Authority page for more information! CLICK HERE.